2023 Predictions, Revisited
I hate being wrong--how wrong was I?
Last year I did my first round of annual predictions, with the goal of revisiting and seeing how well I did. Let’s see how it went, shall we?
Rihanna Album drop: No
However, she shared another creative act nine months in the making. Rihanna announced her baby bump at the Super Bowl half-time show in a red jump suit designed by Loewe. She gave birth to her baby boy Riot in August.
AI AI AI AI: Well yes.
The hype around AI was already starting in late 2022, but really crescendoed through 2023. Throughout much of the year you couldn’t crack open a magazine or news site without some article about AI. See the Google Trends search interest graph for “AI’’” the blue dot indicates January 1, 2023, and the rise of AI as a search term skyrockets from there.
The beginning of the end of hypebeast culture. Probably not.
After a sad end of 2022 and a more sedated collection in early 2023, Balenciaga tried to rekindle its hypebeast flame with an Erewhon collab. MSCHF dropped some ridiculous big red boots in February and…it sold out in seconds. McDonald’s partnered with hypebeast skatewear brand Palace to great acclaim. Pharrell took the helm of Louis Vuitton in February, and kicked off in November with the opposite of quiet luxury : a bright yellow logo-heavy bag with a $1mm price tag. Although far beyond the bank accounts of most of the boys who line up early for Supreme drops, this loud man-purse with its headline-grabbing price tag designed by a celeb is peak hypebeast.
Cheap beer: No
Ok, so Bud Light might have fallen off many people’s shopping lists after the April Dylan Mulvany controversy (I cover it more here). But consumers are investing in premium beer segments, which are a bright spot in a difficult market. As CEO of Heineken Dolf van den Brink says, "A nice premium beer is a luxury you can afford.”
Gen Z beats out Gen X as the most cynical generation. Who knows.
Only time will tell this one, as Gen Alpha starts to make their mark.
And our frenemy the economy. Yes.
I predicted no recession and a slight decline in prices. Luckily we skirted a recession, and although inflation is still here, it’s slowed heavily and the US did see a slight price decline in food prices from November to December.
However, America stayed stubbornly in a vibe-cession, a sense of malaise a bout the economy in spite of positive indicators on employment. Inflation stuck around and interest rates rose, but we didn’t fall into the extremes of a depression or rampant inflation. According to The Economist, most financial predictions for the coming year are inconsistent, but for the most part, banks agree that we’re through the worst of what was possible.
So how did we fare?
Wrong: 3
Right: 2
Unclear: 1
The “wrongs” were generally more near-term and culturally oriented trends, built on one or two data points. Besides the Rihanna-album one, they were also challenging to measure. For example, cheap beer was hard to measure, as the industry doesn’t characterize its non-premium beers as ‘cheap;’ it’s more likely to identify domestics vs international beers, or craft vs commercial. It was also difficult to assess the potential negative signals to a trend like the beginning of the end of hypebeast culture. And the generational prediction? I have no idea how to measure cynicism. To phrase the prediction as ‘the beginning of the end’ means that what looks like positive indicators now might be seen as jump-the-shark moments in a year or two. For next year, I’ll have more clear measures and phrase predictions in more measurable ways.
The “rights” were longer term trends, for which there are many indicators available. The AI one was an easy get, as the flame lit in 2022 could only grow. The economy is the one I’m most happy with; there were many different predictions from experts with access to many more data points.
Check back in two weeks for 2024 predictions.